Cunningham - great content, and yearning for more! Would expect nothing less from the only guy at the TC who could keep up with the Oracle (Scott) and Perlow. Question, what are your thoughts on the TSLA FSD 10K, make the investment now, wait for the subscription, or until viable AV competition comes to market (GM Cruise, some other LiDAR based system)?
Good question, I'd say go for the TSLA FSD package. Here's why.
Big problem for owned AV tech is future-proofing. I've seen companies make huge capital investments in LiDAR that was advanced for the time, but 2 years later became bulky and obsolete compared to next-gen models. That's a big sunk cost and the fleet is stuck with old tech now.
Ryan, great to hear from you my long lost Hoya friend, and I see the thought process here, mechanical obsolescence something to factor in here, whereas a computer vision model can just be updated ... Cybertruck vs Model Y vs Mach-E trying to pick one, luckily Tesla tax credits appear to be coming back. The dawn of the sentient electron powered vehicle is upon us. Look forward to the day where our paths cross again, hopefully at the Tombs sometime (before another 7/8 years goes by)!
Good first issue. I was actually able to read and understand the content. The charts that you used to illustrate points were good choices and I really appreciated how you highlighted the difference between the fundraising hype (exponential growth forever) which sets unrealistic expectations and reality (S-curves). Self driving cars are going to be L3 for a long time in human years as well as IT (dog) years.
Cunningham - great content, and yearning for more! Would expect nothing less from the only guy at the TC who could keep up with the Oracle (Scott) and Perlow. Question, what are your thoughts on the TSLA FSD 10K, make the investment now, wait for the subscription, or until viable AV competition comes to market (GM Cruise, some other LiDAR based system)?
Good question, I'd say go for the TSLA FSD package. Here's why.
Big problem for owned AV tech is future-proofing. I've seen companies make huge capital investments in LiDAR that was advanced for the time, but 2 years later became bulky and obsolete compared to next-gen models. That's a big sunk cost and the fleet is stuck with old tech now.
TSLA camera arrays are much cheaper and easier to replace, but have lower fidelity than LiDAR. I'd argue beyond a certain point, what matters more is the effectiveness of the computer vision model. Right now, TSLA's pseudo-LiDAR approach seems to be closing the gap https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/03/tesla-achieved-the-accuracy-of-lidar-with-its-advanced-computer-vision-tech/
Ryan, great to hear from you my long lost Hoya friend, and I see the thought process here, mechanical obsolescence something to factor in here, whereas a computer vision model can just be updated ... Cybertruck vs Model Y vs Mach-E trying to pick one, luckily Tesla tax credits appear to be coming back. The dawn of the sentient electron powered vehicle is upon us. Look forward to the day where our paths cross again, hopefully at the Tombs sometime (before another 7/8 years goes by)!
Good first issue. I was actually able to read and understand the content. The charts that you used to illustrate points were good choices and I really appreciated how you highlighted the difference between the fundraising hype (exponential growth forever) which sets unrealistic expectations and reality (S-curves). Self driving cars are going to be L3 for a long time in human years as well as IT (dog) years.